Climate Change Blamed for Historic Flooding in El Salvador

Communities Organize Disaster Response & Demand More Government Collaboration

JIQUILISCO, El Salvador – As thousands of Salvadorans return to their homes and begin to rebuild their lives after last week’s historic rain and floods, many officials and civil society organizations in the region are blaming climate change for the catastrophe and calling upon the government to respond appropriately.

Don Lencho with some of his cattle in Zamorano

Last week, Tropical Depression 12-E and weather from Hurricane Jova poured more than 55 inches of rain over a seven-day period on Central America, far eclipsing Hurricane Mitch in 1998, the storm by which all others had been compared.

Though last week’s rain and flooding were more severe, local and national preparedness has improved dramatically since 1998, limiting the number of deaths in El Salvador to 34, compared to the 289 lives claimed by Hurricane Mitch.

Officials throughout Central American have attributed the extreme rain totals to climate change. Raul Artiga of the Central American Commission on Environment and Development (CCAD) stated, “Climate change is not something that is coming in the future, we are already suffering its effects.”

Herman Rosa Chávez, El Salvador’s Minister of the Environment, elaborated that the frequency of extreme rainfall events, defined by more than 100 millimeters (4 inches) in 24 hours, or 350 millimeters (14 inches) in 72 hours, in El Salvador has increased continually since the 1960s. Chávez said that until the 1980s, El Salvador “had never been affected by a Hurricane in the Pacific.” Since then, several of the worst weather disasters have resulted from Pacific weather patterns, including Hurricane Paul in 1982, Hurricane Mitch in 1998, and now Tropical Depression 12-E.

According to a recent reportreport by The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), climate change is expected to take a greater toll on the region in the future. “Studies agree on the upward tendency of costs,” says the report, “whether defined as damage to well-being or as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).”

According to Roberto Valent, the United Nations Resident Coordinator in El Salvador, damages from last week’s extreme rain may reach more than US$1 billion.

The Lower Lempa region of San Vicente and Usulután has been one of the hardest hit in El Salvador. The region is supposed to be protected by earthen levees that line the banks of the Lempa River, the largest in the country. The levees, however, burst when an upstream dam released 9,500 cubic meters of water per second, for more than 12 hours – three times the flow the levees were built to withstand.

While community leaders in the Lower Lempa agree that climate change is responsible for the extreme rainfall, they have long argued that the Hydroelectric Executive Commission of the Lempa River (CEL, for its name in Spanish) mismanaged the dam and corresponding reservoir, prioritizing the generation of electricity over mitigating the risk of flooding downstream. In February 2011, Rigoberto Herrera Cruz, the Deputy Mayor of Jiquilisco, stated that

“We believe the CEL [Lempa River Hydro-electric Commission] who runs the dam do massive water releases because to allow the water out little by little means they would earn slightly less profit,”

On October 20^th, El Salvador’s President Mauricio Funes met with leaders in the Lower Lempa and promised support for reconstructing communities and local agriculture. Jiquilisco Mayor David Barahona stressed that the Central Government must also reconstruct the levees and restore the drainage system that helps channel floodwaters out of the region. Local development organizations have joined in this call, adding that the CEL must also manage its hydroelectric dams in a manner that prioritizes the safety of the communities downstream over their desire to maximize electricity production.

Minister Chávez added to the reconstruction conversation, “we cannot rebuild in the same vulnerable way. If we do not take the [changing weather] phenomena into account, we will be throwing that investment away.”

The undersigned group of international organizations works in partnership and solidarity with various organizations, government officials, and community boards in the Lower Lempa. We echo the concerns and demands expressed by our local partners and Minister Chávez, and will support them in the days, weeks, and months ahead as they advocate for their communities.

Signed:

EcoViva – http://eco-viva.org/  (Contact: Nathan Weller, nathan@eco-viva.org)

Voices on the Border – http://votb.org/ (Contact: Rosie Ramsey, rosie@votb.org)

The Share Foundation – http://www.share-elsalvador.org/ (Contact: José Artiga, jose@share-elsalvador.org)

U.S. Sister Cities – http://elsalvadorsolidarity.org (Contact: sistercities.elsalvador@gmail.com)

Pictures of Evacuations and Shelters in Jiquilisco, Monday & Tuesday

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Matching Grant – Donate Now!

Michael Terry and Laura Turiano just pledged to match the next $2000 donated to Voices for flood relief. So if you click on the donate now button, we can match your contribution. If you donate $100, it will become $200!

The water is receding somewhat, but the need for food, water, clothing, and medical supplies is only increasing. Many communities in the Lower Lempa lost everything, and they need our assistance right now.

So click on the Donate Now Button to the right of this page, your contribution will be doubled!

Thanks to Michael and Laura, and all others who have contributed to this effort.

Flood Update – Tuesday

Sorry that we’ve been slow with an update this morning, but we didn’t receive much information out of the Lower Lempa until a moment ago.

Some good news to report; the communities of Nueva Esperanza, Ciudad Romero, Zamorano and others that are completely underwater have been completely evacuated. We have been worried about a group of 57 people (last night we reported 40, but that number was revised upward this morning) were stuck on the top of the Nueva Esperanza Community center and then the bell tower of the church last night. We just received word that they reached the emergency shelter at about noon today.

The water has also begun to recede a bit. While the road is still flooded in some places it is possible to get large trucks all the way down to La Canoa, which has been cut off for the past couple of days. Our staff also met up with several people from the shelter in Amando Lopez who made their way up to the main road and rode their bicycles through the flood waters all the way up to San Marcos.

The shelters are full in San Marcos, Tierra Blanca, Angela Montano, and Jiquilisco, and the conditions are poor, but our staff reports that supplies are starting to arrive.

The weather is supposed to be clearing up today, though our staff reports that it is still raining in the Lempa. Officials from Civil Protection have warned the general public that even if the weather is nice today, the forecast is for storms tomorrow and possibly Thursday so no one should let their guard down.

The latest reports are that there are 32 confirmed deaths in El Salvador, and two people are reported as missing. Schools and universities remain closed today and probably tomorrow. El Faro.net is reporting that the official number of evacuees remains at 32,000, and that over 20,000 houses have been destroyed.

The King of Spain has sent a Boeing 727 full of relief supplies to El Salvador, and it is currently sitting at the military airport in Comalapa being unloaded.

Though the news today is not as bad as yesterday, there are many, many concerns about what’s ahead. Eduardo Espinoza, the Vice-Minister of Public Health, is warning that the greatest threat to public health at this moment is contaminated well water. He is very concerned that in rural communities contaminated water will result in high rates of gastrointestinal infections, typhoid fever, hepatitis, and other diseases. The populations most affected by these diseases are the ones living in shelters and have little or no access to medical care. The ministry is working to get doctors and public health experts to the shelters.

Before the rains started last week, the government was predicting record harvests of basic grains like corn and beans. One estimate is that 80% of the nation’s agricultural crops are lost – which will devastate the local economy and food security. The Consumer Defense agency, a private advocacy and watchdog group in El Salvador, is monitoring the prices of foods and other products, especially imports, and so far there has not been a rise in food prices, but it is a real fear in the coming days and weeks.

The Voices staff is currently drafting a couple posts on different aspects of this disaster, and we’ll have a slideshow and update from the Lower Lempa later this afternoon.

US Embassy Announces Aid for Flood Relief

Today the U.S. Embassy in San Salvador announced an aid package worth $50,000 to support the Salvadoran Ministry of Civil Protection’s efforts to respond to the worst flooding in the country’s modern history. The package will help buy “fuel for emergency vehicles, as well as portable kitchen sets and hygiene kits for people staying in government shelters.”

The Embassy statement also says that they are “distributing equipment that was previously donated to the government of El Salvador by USAID in anticipation of this type of emergency.” The equipment includes plastic sheeting, 2800 hygiene kits, shovels, and other tools.

In a similar announcement, La Prensa Grafica is reporting this evening that the International Development Bank is releasing the first $25 million of a $50 million loan package. President Funes tonight said that the funds will be used for recovering from the disaster. The La Prensa Grafica article also reports that the governments of Spain, Taiwan, Guatemala and the United States have offered assistances, as has the Central American Bank of Economic Integration and the United Nations Development Program, but it is unclear whether any support has actually to reach those in shelters.

President Funes tonight also confirmed that there are 32 confirmed deaths in El Salvador, and that 3 other people are reported as missing, and 32,000 are evacuated to emergency shelters.

Another article in La Prensa Grafica reports that the Legislative Assembly today voted unanimously to declare a national emergency for the next 60 days. In part that waives all duties on aid coming into the country from aid organizations.

While the US Embassy’s contribution is a nice start, the international community seems a little slow to respond. The flooding, at least in the Lower Lempa region of Usulután, has reached epic proportions. There are thousands of people in shelters with no food or water, and many others are still stuck in their communities.

Perhaps the lack of international aid is linked to the lack of coverage by the international media. The AP put out a story yesterday that was carried on the Huffington Post, and the blogs for a couple major news outlets. But a quick scan of some of the major news websites (NY Times, Washington Post, CNN, BBC, NPR, Al-Jazeera English) found not one story on the flooding in Central America; forget about a story focusing on El Salvador. Maybe that will change with tomorrow’s news cycle.

This apparent lack of attention makes your contribution and support all the more important. Please help us in two ways:

1) Click on the Donate Now button and make a financial contribution to flood relief – we’ll make sure it gets directly to the community; and

2) inform others about the devastation and ask them to make a contribution.

We’ll be providing another update tomorrow morning.

 

Flood Update – Saturday, October 15th

Rain continues to fall in El Salvador and our partners in the Lower Lempa region of Jiquilisco, Usulután are flooded out. They face a double threat: 1) massive rainfalls that have no where drain, and 2) the Lempa River which has busted through and is flowing over the levees.

Here is a short slideshow of photos taken Thursday night and Friday in the Lempa.

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Here are the latest numbers from the community evacuation shelters:

Ciudad Romero – 82 people
Zanmorano (mostly evacuees from Nueva Esperanza) – 150 people
El Marillo – 78 people
Amando Lopez – 150 people
Jiquilisco – 99 people
Las Mesitas – 114 people
Isla de Mendez – 47 people
Comunidad Octavio Ortiz – 8 families

The September 15th Dam, which is just upriver from the Lower Lempa, is currently releasing water at a rate of 3000 cm/sec, which is lower than the 5500 cm/sec earlier in the week, but still high. Civil Protection officials are warning that the release rate may go back up above 5000 later today because of the large amounts of rain that continues to fall throughout El Salvador and Guatemala and drains to the Lempa River.

There are four large holes in the levees that protect the communities, so even with the lower flow rates from the dam, water continues to pour inland.

The good news is that all of the work over the past two years to better coordinate rescue efforts has paid off and all of the different government agencies and international organizations are working closer together to serve the needs of those affected.

But the needs are great and Central Command has asked that we help take care of the needs at community shelters such as the one Amando Lopez. The other day Voices set out to raise $3000 to help the shelters and so far we raised only $1300, $800 of which we just used to purchase small mattresses for the Amando Lopez shelter where people have been sleeping on the floor. We are also buying general supplies for the shelters.

The $1300 we’ve raised so far is providing great benefit, but the needs are tremendous at this point, and we ask that if you haven’t already given, please go to our website (www.votb.org) or blog (www.voiceselsalvador.wordpress.com) and click on the Donate Now button. Even easier – here is the URL for our Network for Good page – cut and past that into your browser… Its easy and just takes a second.

We ask one other thing – please send this update to your friends and family and ask them to also make a donation – no contribution is too small.

Your donation is not going to a large Institution with high overhead – it going directly to the communities where the needs are.

El Salvador’s Ongoing Struggle with Food Security (Part 2)

Food security and water issues in El Salvador are partially caused and definitely worsened by the effects of climate change.  The unpredictable patterns of rainfall and drought that are characteristic of climate change negatively affect crop production, thereby leading to reduced yields and higher market prices.

 

José Camilo Rodriguez, mayor of the community of Tonacatepeque, remarked in an interview conducted by the World Bank on the stress that has been put on the poor farmers in his community, due to the effects on the market that were caused by precarious weather conditions, such as floods.

 

Floods, in addition to harming crops, often tend to lead to the contamination of rivers as sewage and rainwater combine and flow back into rivers as the floods subside. FAO estimates that a mere 16% of Salvadorans have access to water that is safe to drink.  The Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) additionally notes that only 2% of the rivers in El Salvador hold water that is suitable for human consumption.  MARN alleges that one of the most contaminated rivers is the Lempa River, which reaches a large number of communities over its 360-kilometer span and is highly polluted by fecal bacteria.

 

In regards to food related security, FAO cites that 9% of the Salvadoran population is undernourished, missing about 190 calories from their diet.  Inequality in access to food is troublingly high.  Despite all of the challenges and problems the Salvadoran people face, at least a few communities have come together in community-based projects to improve their food and water security situations.

 

Grassroots community efforts to improve food security and water quality are making concrete, positive impacts in El Salvador.  We at Voices on the Border have had a direct hand in working with communities in the Lower Lempa to help develop irrigation systems that facilitate crop cultivation, especially during the dry season and periods of drought, which threaten crop yields.

 

In addition, communities in Santa Marta, El Salvador, with the help of an international NGO have successfully worked to raise fish, harvest honey, and crops.  These products are sold at market and some of the profits are invested back into the venture, to keep it growing.  This project enjoys the help of many members of the community, who take turns fishing or selling their products at market.  Grassroots level improvement of the food security situation in El Salvador is promising and seems to be gaining popularity.

 

Supplementing these grassroots initiatives are the efforts of various international organizations that have attempted to help improve the food security situation in the country.  On March 24, the USDA, under their Food For Progress (FFP) initiative, donated 30,000 metric tons of wheat to El Salvador.  The sales of this wheat are intended to generate about $11 million of revenue that will be utilized to finance infrastructure and development projects to help farmers affected by Tropical Storm Ida. Food For Progress  also urges them to take advantage of the trade opportunities afforded to them under the DR-CAFTA agreement. Since 2001, USDA has delivered 130,400 metric tons of food to El Salvador, for a total value of approximately $27.5 million.  While this form of aid seems both promising and beneficial to food security measures, due to the direct investment in domestic production El Salvadoran agriculture, other programs have not been as conscientious.

 

USAID’s “glass of milk” project, was launched in 2009 with the intention of providing a daily glass of milk to 3,790 students in 15 schools of Ataco, Ahuachapán, with the aim at improving the physical health and development of Salvadoran youth.  USAID invested $76,317 for the provision of these resources and the program was successful with the caveat that it missed a prime opportunity to invest in the Salvadoran economy.  Instead of cooperating with local dairy farmers within the country, USAID financed the importation of dried milk imported from northern US states.  This large-scale importation of milk drove down market prices for dairy products, creating adverse consequences for local dairy farmers.  While the aid of international organizations is necessary for food and water improvements in El Salvador, this project is an example of why organizations need to be wary of the manner in which they seek to make improvements.

 

Food and water security is a vital issue for communities in El Salvador who are experiencing unpleasant consequences on their agricultural sector from the economic interdependence that has arisen from globalization and the effects of climate change.  These factors continue to complicate El Salvador’s quest to better its food security situation, but through domestic investment in agricultural infrastructure and products and grassroots community efforts to promote sustainability, it is likely many of these problems could be mitigated.

El Salvador’s Ongoing Struggle with Food Security (Part 1)

El Salvador has not been exempt from the food security problems that have historically plagued developing countries.  According to The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), food security exists when “all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” Currently, El Salvador’s food security condition remains stable, without instance of acute food shortages.  Although ‘stable,’ the food security situation in El Salvador is definitely less than ideal and market prices for agricultural products continue to climb.

 

FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture reports (GIEWS) highlight a few important characteristics of the current Salvadoran state of food security.  A 40% rise in the price of maize and beans since last year is the first among the challenges facing Salvadorans.  These are the country’s basic food sources, which experienced severely reduced yields due to the excessive rainfalls of 2010, coupled with the international rise in grain prices.  Finally, the 2011 sowing of cereal crops is predicted to be low due to the damage caused by the La Niña phenomenon.

 

Food security problems in El Salvador have historical roots. Landholdings in El Salvador were once concentrated in the hands of a small group of wealthy elites until agrarian reforms were initiated in 1980.  This group of landholders instituted a system of cultivation in which they focused on a singular export, producing a mono-crop culture that would persist for decades.  The focus of production on a singular crop necessitated the importation of many other important agricultural commodities that were not being domestically produced. The first of these mono-crops was cacao, during the end of the 16^th century, followed by indigo in the 18^th century, and then finally in the mid-19^th century, coffee. From 1871 to 1927 El Salvador was referred to as the “coffee republic.” The extremely lucrative nature of the coffee trade served to further concentrate land in the hands of oligarchy that had developed.

 

The beginning in the 1980s witnessed an increase in demand for government intervention in the agricultural sector, as Salvadorans pressed to gain access to land through protests and other public demonstrations.  An agrarian reform eventually liberated over 500 hectares from 230 estates, or about 15% of the country’s farmland. Although the redistribution of land seemed to be promising, overall it was not effective enough to change the trajectory of El Salvador’s agricultural sector or economy.

 

During the Cristiani administration (1989-1994), El Salvador’s economy remained dependent on agricultural imports.  Cristiani prioritized his family business, Semillas Cristiani Burkard (SCB), a privately held seed company headquartered in Guatemala City, Guatemala, over internal development of the agricultural sector.  Crisitani curtailed the growth and development of the domestic sector by heavily importing seeds from SCB in order to accumulate personal wealth.

 

Cristiani also pushed for further industrialization of the country, which had been seen briefly during the Civil War, in the form of maquiladoras, which contained free economic export zones or ports commonly located in and created by third world countries, which dealt mainly with exporting cheaply priced, handmade products. Maquiladoras were located in the metropolitan areas of El Salvador, which heightened the level of urbanization, creating problems of congestion, but also demands for more industrial commodities and services, such as electricity and transportation.

 

This population shift, from rural to urban centers of living and sometimes from El Salvador to other international locations, had significant impacts on the agricultural sector.  Remittances provide a clear example of the consequences of migration on agricultural practices.  Salvadorans are extremely dependent on remittances, and as much as 20.7% of their GDP consists of said monetary transfers.  The Central Bank estimated that in 2010 remittances from Salvadorans working in the United States totaled a hefty $3.5 billion.  Essentially, the less developed communities in El Salvador are making lifestyle and economic shifts that signify a movement away from subsistence agriculture, made possible by remittances that supplement or comprise their household incomes.

 

The Funes administration (2009-present), has been left with the historical lack of diversification of agricultural production, along with the absence of development of the domestic agricultural sector as a consequence of Cristiani’s strategy to focus on crop imports.  Almost 95% of fruit and vegetables consumed in El Salvador are imported from abroad, along with 30% of all its beans and 40% of corn.  Funes and the FMLN have made it a goal in May of 2011 to achieve “food sovereignty” meaning the ability to decide what agricultural policies El Salvador will implement which will also hopefully lessen the impact the international market has on the Salvadoran agricultural sector.

 

In an effort to achieve “food sovereignty,” Funes has explicitly recognized the role of small, non-commercial family farmers who produce 70% of the country’s domestically cultivated grains, mainly for the consumption of their own family.  These farmers are particularly significant to stability of El Salvador’s food security situation and Funes proposed the Family Agriculture Plan in an effort to aid them. This plan intends to serve over 325,000 families that are dependent upon subsistence agriculture by continuing to provide them with free agricultural packets of seeds and chemical fertilizer.

 

Food security has historically and currently is a major issue that confronts El Salvador.  The problems caused by a lack of food security must not only be addressed by the Salvadoran government but also highly prioritized, as current environmental and market conditions—climate change and high market prices for agricultural commodities—are only serving to exacerbate the insecurity.

Tropical Storm Matthew

We are watching Tropical Storm Matthew, which is currently located about 12 hours off the eastern coast of Nicaragua. While forecasters do not believe that the storm system has the time or energy to develop into a hurricane, they are concerned that it will weaken and “become part of a nearly stationary broad area of low pressure over Central America.” They are concerned that “such a weather pattern would likely produce dangerous torrential rains in Central America over the next few days.”

We are particularly concerned about this storm because our partner communities in the Lower Lempa Region of Jiquilisco, Usulután have already experienced consistent, heavy rains for the past few months and their properties are already saturated. The heavy rains that forecasters are predicting could result in severe flooding.

In terms of food security, most farmers in the Lower Lempa have already lost their corn crops this year. Those who have access to irrigation systems have not even planted corn this season and are waiting for the dry season to plant when they can better control the conditions.

We will keep monitoring this storm and provide updates as we get them.

Tuesday the 28th Update

Tropical Storm Matthew was down graded to a low pressure system on Sunday and is now lingering over northern Honduras.  Rains continue intermittently and communities throughout El Salvador have reported slight flooding and minor landslides.  The Lempa River has not gone over the levees in the Lower Lempa, but several communities are flooded from swollen creeks and excess rain.  Some families from Nueva Esperanza, Los Lotes, and El Marillo have sought temporary shelter in Ciudad Romero.  The rain is expected to continue through out today.

Persistent Rain in the Lower Lempa

Tropical Storms and Small Farmers

Small producers in El Salvador are facing a grim agricultural season this summer.  Tropical Storm Agatha started off the rainy season with torrential rains that caused landslides and massive flooding along the coastal river basins.  Last week’s Hurricane Alex brought more rain that further saturated the soil of already vulnerable communities.

The outlook for the rest of the rainy season doesn’t bode well either.  Colorado State University, NOAA, and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) are predicting a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean with an average of 18 tropical storms between June 1^st and November 30^th.  These storms push ample amounts of rain and wind onto El Salvador, where 95% of the population is vulnerable to the effects of natural disasters.

In a discussion with Voices on the Border’s partner community Octavio Ortiz, in the Lower Lempa, Jiquilisco we can begin to understand what this means for small subsistence farmers.

In Octavio Ortiz 60 of the 97 families farm their own land; an average of 5 acres per family.  Other community members work as day laborers, or in a handful of trade skills.  With the land overly saturated, landowners can’t count on their own harvest for their year’s supply of corn, and the day laborers have been without work.  The average pay is $4.00 for four or five hours of heavy manual labor.

Some families planted corn before Agatha and then lost it.  A few of those families decided to re-plant, only to lose that seed to Alex.  Very few farmers dare to try again, especially with the heaviest rains expected for July, September and October.  After Alex, the community reported a loss of about 66 acres of corn.  680 chickens also died.  No one had risked planting vegetables which are a much more expensive investment, so there was no need to report losses there.  Most of the fruit trees survived the storm, but about 15 families had hoped to plant mango, cocoa, and lemon trees.  They’re having trouble finding land where the young saplings won’t rot before they take hold.

Swampy fields also impact the backbone of the community’s economy – cattle.  Traditionally the rainy season is ideal for abundant pasture and local cows can thrive.  This year’s pastures are either still flooded or have become de facto swamps.  One woman said that before the storms her seven cows were producing 35 bottles of milk every day.  Now they are only able to produce between 10 or 12 bottles.  That means she has gone from earning about $14 dollars a week to just $4 dollars.

Efforts to aid the community have been piecemeal.  The mayor donated small packets of food last month.  This weekend the Red Cross donated more food aid packages that will last families at least a month or two.  Other associations and NGO’s have distributed aid to their corresponding sectors.  The Ministry of Agriculture and Cattle has collected the reported losses from the community and is offering rice and sorghum seeds come August.  They are also selling chickens at very reduced prices ($18 for 50 chicks).

The reality of the situation is that this community and others like it will have to find alternative ways to feed their families for the remainder of the year.  When conditions are favorable, farmers can produce one more harvest after the rainy season thanks to the lingering humidity in the soil.  After that, only those with access to irrigation will be able to produce a harvest during the dry season.

Several local associations such as ACUDESBAL and ADIBAL have begun pilot projects with small groups sharing portable irrigation systems in an effort to confront climate change and create more resilient communities.  However, local farmers are hesitant to try their hand at the new systems.  For many, rain has always determined the growing season, and intensive farming requires a greater commitment in time, energy and maintenance.  Just consider that to buy the few gallons of gasoline that the pump requires per week, the farmer has to travel by bus with his or her gas can to the closest gas station 12 miles away.  Initiatives such as these require time and patience.  The experiences of those participating in the pilot project serve to convince neighbors and friends over time.  Typically, communities begin to reproduce these kinds of initiatives on their own after three years.  But – with weather patterns being anything but typical, farmers could embrace such alternatives more quickly.  It may be the safest card they have left to play.