PRESIDENTIAL REELECTION IN EL SALVADOR

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During a national radio and television broadcast, on the occasion of the commemoration of the 201st anniversary of El Salvador’s independence on September 15, the president announced that he will be a candidate to seek a new term in office. The news was celebrated by most of those present as if it were a last-minute goal in a soccer match.

The first drums of reelection sounded when the Constitutional Chamber, on September 03, 2021, issued a ruling establishing the decision for a president to continue in office corresponds to the voters. “Competing again for the presidency does not de facto imply that he/she becomes elected, it only implies that the people will have among their range of options the person who at that moment exercises the presidency,” the magistrates pointed out in the ruling, a year ago.

However, it’s important to remember that on May 1, 2021, the same day that the Legislative Assembly, elected on February 28 and formed by a pro-government majority, urgently dismissed the magistrates without further study and appointed new officials, who have been widely questioned for the illegality of their appointment and their affinity with the president of the republic.

To justify his decision, President Bukele, during his speech, read a long list of countries that have presidential reelection in their legal system. “Surely more than one developed country will not agree with this decision, but they are not the ones who will decide, but the Salvadoran people,” Bukele said. He also added, “it would be a hypocritical protest because everyone has reelection.” 

However, it is not any of these countries that prohibits reelection in El Salvador, but the Constitution that Nayib Bukele himself promised to comply with and enforce on June 1, 2019, when he took office.

The Salvadoran Constitution, in force since 1983, clearly prohibits presidential reelection in at least six articles, according to constitutional lawyers. The first is Article 88: “The alternation in the exercise of the Presidency of the Republic is indispensable for the maintenance of the established form of government and political system.”

Article 131 establishes that: “It is incumbent upon the Legislative Assembly to compulsorily disqualify the President of the Republic or whoever takes his place when his constitutional term has expired and he continues in office. In such a case, if there is no person legally called to the exercise of the Presidency, it shall appoint a Provisional President.”

Article 152 establishes that: “Those who have held the office of President of the Republic for more than six months, consecutive or not, during the immediately preceding period, or within the last six months before the beginning of the presidential term, may not be candidates for President of the Republic.”

Another clear clause is Article 154: “The presidential term of office shall be five years and shall begin and end on the first day of June, without the person who has served as President being able to continue in office for one more day.”

Article 248 establishes how the Assembly may modify the Constitution, clearly stating that: “The articles of this Constitution that refer to the form and system of Government, the territory of the Republic and the alternation in the exercise of the Presidency of the Republic may not be modified in any case.”  And finally, Article 75 states that whoever promotes presidential reelection loses the right of citizenship.

Despite the illegality of such a move, polls conducted by the media and academic institutions have revealed in recent months that Bukele continues to enjoy strong approval ratings, making his reelection seem certain.

According to the digital newspaper El Faro, this level of approval has to do with social conditions and recent political history: “A country like El Salvador, with so much poverty and so many people desperate because of the direct threat of criminal groups, needs to cling to the hope that the government is doing a job that will allow them to improve their quality of life. They want to believe in that because none of the previous exercises of power gave them solutions,” the publication notes.

In addition to his popularity, Bukele has several other advantages to ensure his reelection, the main one being his almost absolute control over the public institutions responsible for the electoral processes. Simultaneously, the political opposition is practically annulled. 

Another reality is constant harassment to silence voices critical of the government. There are several media outlets and journalists with protective orders issued by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, and others who have had to leave the country and are now working in exile. According to the organization Reporters without Borders, in just one year, between 2021 and 2022, El Salvador went from 82nd to 112th place in the world press freedom ranking. 

On the other hand, institutions such as the Catholic Church, which at other times maintained a courageous position and a constant denunciation of abuses of power, currently maintain a low profile. 

However, despite this inauspicious context, recognized civil society organizations have taken an active role, denouncing and demanding respect for the laws of the country. A well-known lawyer and social activist recently expressed “As already expected: the president announced electoral fraud. The fact that he is running as a presidential candidate is, by itself, an electoral fraud, since it violates the electoral rules established in the Constitution: the dictatorship is consolidated in El Salvador.” 

_{[Image credit: Alfredo Carias]}

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LA REELECCIÓN PRESIDENCIAL EN EL SALVADOR

Durante una cadena nacional de radio y televisión, con motivo de la conmemoración de 201 años de independencia de El Salvador, el pasado 15 de septiembre, el presidente anunció que será candidato para buscar un nuevo periodo en el gobierno. La noticia fue celebrada por la mayoría de los presentes, como si se tratara de un gol en el último minuto de un partido de fútbol.

Los primeros tambores de la reelección sonaron cuando la Sala de lo Constitucional, el 03 de septiembre de 2021, emitió un fallo que establece que la decisión de que un presidente continúe en el cargo recae en los electores. “Competir de nuevo por la presidencia no implica de facto que éste llegue a ser electo, implica únicamente que el pueblo tendrá entre su gama de opciones a la persona que en ese momento ejerce la presidencia”, señalaron los jueces en la sentencia, hace un año.

No obstante, hay que recordar que el 01 de mayo de 2021, el mismo día en que tomó posesión, la Asamblea Legislativa, electa el 28 de febrero y conformada por mayoría oficialista; con urgencia y sin mayor estudio destituyó a los magistrados y nombró a nuevos funcionarios, quienes han sido ampliamente cuestionados por la ilegalidad de su nombramiento y por su afinidad al presidente de la república.

En el afán de justificar su decisión, el presidente Bukele, durante su discurso, dio lectura a una larga lista de países que poseen en su ordenamiento jurídico la reelección presidencial. “De seguro más de algún país desarrollado no estará de acuerdo con esta decisión, pero no son ellos los que decidirán, sino el pueblo salvadoreño”, expresó Bukele. Además añadió que “sería una protesta hipócrita porque todos ellos tienen reelección”. 

Sin embargo, no es ninguno de estos países el que prohíbe la reelección en El Salvador, sino la Constitución que el mismo Nayib Bukele prometió cumplir y hacer cumplir el 01 de junio de 2019, cuando asumió el poder.

La Constitución salvadoreña, vigente desde 1983, prohíbe la reelección presidencial, claramente en al menos seis artículos, de acuerdo con abogados constitucionalistas. El primero es el artículo 88: “La alternabilidad en el ejercicio de la Presidencia de la República es indispensable para el mantenimiento de la forma de gobierno y sistema político establecidos”.

El artículo 131 afirma que: “Corresponde a la Asamblea Legislativa desconocer obligatoriamente al Presidente de la República o al que haga sus veces cuando terminado su período constitucional continúe en el ejercicio del cargo. En tal caso, si no hubiere persona legalmente llamada para el ejercicio de la Presidencia, designará un Presidente Provisional.”

El artículo 152 establece que: “No podrán ser candidatos a Presidente de la República el que haya desempeñado la Presidencia de la República por más de seis meses, consecutivos o no, durante el período inmediato anterior, o dentro de los últimos seis meses anteriores al inicio del período presidencial.”

Otro artículo claro es el 154: “El período presidencial será de cinco años y comenzará y terminará el día primero de junio, sin que la persona que haya ejercido la Presidencia pueda continuar en sus funciones ni un día más.”

El artículo 248 establece la forma en que la Asamblea puede modificar la Constitución, pero además es claro al afirmar que: “No podrán reformarse en ningún caso los artículos de esta Constitución que se refieren a la forma y sistema de Gobierno, al territorio de la República y a la alternabilidad en el ejercicio de la Presidencia de la República.”  Y por último el artículo 75 habla que quien promueva la reelección presidencial pierde los derechos de ciudadano.

Pese a la ilegalidad de la medida, encuestas realizadas por medios de comunicación e instituciones académicas han revelado durante los últimos meses que Bukele sigue teniendo un alto nivel de aceptación popular, por lo que su reelección parece segura.

Según el diario digital El Faro periódico digital El Faro, este nivel de aprobación tiene que ver con las condiciones sociales y con la historia política reciente: “Un país como El Salvador, con tanta pobreza y tanta población desesperada por la amenaza directa de grupos criminales, necesita aferrarse a la esperanza de que el gobierno está haciendo un trabajo que les permita mejorar su calidad de vida. Quieren creer en eso porque ninguno de los anteriores ejercicios del poder les dio soluciones”, analiza la publicación.

Pero además de la aceptación popular, Bukele tiene otras ventajas, para asegurar su reelección, la principal es que ejerce un control, casi absoluto, de las instituciones públicas que tienen competencia en los procesos electorales. Al mismo tiempo que la oposición política está prácticamente anulada. 

Otra realidad es que existe un acoso constante para callar las voces críticas al gobierno, de hecho, hay varios medios y periodistas con medidas cautelares de la Comisión Interamericana de Derechos Humanos y otros que han tenido que abandonar el país y ahora trabajan desde el exilio. Según la organización Reporteros sin Fronteras, en solo un año, entre 2021 y 2022, El Salvador pasó del puesto 82 al 112 en la clasificación mundial sobre la libertad de prensa. 

Por otra parte, instituciones como la iglesia católica, que en otros tiempos, mantuvo una posición valiente y una denuncia constante ante los abusos de poder, en estos momentos mantiene un bajo perfil. 

Pero, a pesar del contexto desfavorable, reconocidas organizaciones de la sociedad civil, han tomado un rol activo, denunciando y exigiendo respeto a las leyes del país. Un conocido abogado y activista social expresó recientemente “Como ya se esperaba: el presidente anunció el fraude electoral. Que él se presente como candidato presidencial es, por sí solo, un fraude electoral, pues viola las reglas electorales fijadas en la Constitución: se consolida la dictadura en El Salvador.”

¿QUE SIGUE, LUEGO DE LAS ELECCIONES EN EL SALVADOR?

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Con los Acuerdos de Paz, en 1992, se pone fin a la guerra civil y se inicia una nueva etapa en la vida política de El Salvador, caracterizada por la desmilitarización de la sociedad, el surgimiento de nuevas instituciones y el ejercicio de elecciones democráticas.

El sistema democrático salvadoreño adolece de debilidad institucional y persisten comportamientos antidemocráticos en la mayoría actores políticos, pero se ha logrado institucionalizar elecciones de manera periódica. Desde 1992 se han llevado a cabo 13 eventos electorales. 6 para elección de presidente y 7 para elección de diputados y concejos municipales.

En una sociedad democrática, la celebración de elecciones justas, libres, transparentes y competitivas son esenciales para el sano ejercicio del poder y sobre todo para que la decisión de la población, expresada en su voto, se traduzca en servidores públicos electos por mayoría, quienes, durante un periodo de tiempo, efectivamente deberían estar al servicio de la población.

Si bien, las 13 elecciones realizadas han sido en el marco de la legalidad, la celebrada el pasado 28 de febrero tuvo ciertas particularidades; en primer lugar, una desproporcionada campaña electoral, en la cual el partido Nuevas Ideas (partido del presidente Nayib Bukele) concentró más del 70% del gasto en publicidad.

Otra característica fue una exacerbada violencia electoral; al grado que, a pocas semanas de la elección, un grupo de militantes del FMLN fue atacado a balazos luego de participar en un acto partidario en San Salvador, como consecuencia dos activistas murieron y tres resultaron heridos. El ataque fue condenado por varios representantes diplomáticos, entre ellos el encargado de negocios de la embajada de Estados Unidos en El Salvador, Brendan O’Brien. Sin embargo, no fue condenado por el propio presidente, quien en cambio culpó al partido FMLN por llevar a cabo un autoataque.

Adicionalmente, hubo una constante violación a la legislación electoral, especialmente por parte de funcionarios del más alto nivel del gobierno y del mismo presidente de la república, así como la utilización de abundantes recursos públicos para fines electorales.

Estos factores representaron ventajas antidemocráticas para Nuevas Ideas; quienes, como era de esperar, ganaron las elecciones, y no solo porque llevaron a cabo una campaña bien planificada que no temía romper las reglas, sino también por una acumulación de instituciones desacreditadas, promesas incumplidas, deficiencia de liderazgo y la corrupción generalizada de los partidos políticos tradicionales.

De confirmarse los resultados preliminares, “el partido del presidente” obtendría 56 de 84 diputados y 145 de 262 alcaldías y concejos municipales. Para tener una apreciación de lo que esto significa, hay que decir que nunca un partido había logrado tantos diputados. La cifra más alta la logró Arena en 1994, al sumar 39 parlamentarios.

Con estos números a su favor, el presidente Bukele no necesitará de ningún otro partido para tomar decisiones como la elección del Fiscal General; elección de Magistrados de la Corte Suprema de Justicia; del Procurador General de los Derechos Humanos y de Magistrados de la Corte de Cuentas de la República; aprobación de nuevos préstamos, otorgar concesiones estatales al sector privado, entre otras leyes. Con lo cual tendría un poder político, casi absoluto.

Otra preocupación tiene que ver con la reforma constitucional, que ya está en marcha, y la cuestión de si el presidente Bukele buscará o no reformar la constitución para permitirle ser elegido para otro mandato, considerando que el actual mandato presidencial es por 5 años, sin oportunidad de reelección.

No obstante, la concentración de poder político en la figura del presidente, incluida la posibilidad de su reelección, no parece ser asunto de mucha transcendencia para la mayoría de la población. En 2018 una encuesta del Latinobarómetro reveló que El Salvador era el país de América que menos importancia le daba a la democracia, solo el 28%, la consideraba importante, mientras que el 54% reportó que le daba lo mismo vivir en una democracia que en una dictadura.

Afortunadamente, la democracia no se reduce al ejercicio del poder institucionalizado, la democracia también se encuentra en la organización y participación de sociedades marginadas movilizadas, que trabajan incansablemente para exigir el respeto de los derechos humanos de sus comunidades.

Nada le haría más daño a la precaria democracia salvadoreña que un rol pasivo de la sociedad civil. Hoy más que nunca, la academia, la prensa independiente, la iglesia progresista y el movimiento social en general deben asumir un rol de contrapeso frente a las estructuras de poder gubernamental que actúan en contra de las necesidades tangibles del pueblo, y hacerlos responsables, sin importar el color de su partido.

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WHAT’S NEXT, AFTER THE ELECTIONS IN EL SALVADOR

With the signing of the Peace Accords in 1992, the civil war ended and a new political era began in El Salvador. This era was characterized by the demilitarization of the society, the emergence of new institutions and the free exercise of democratic elections. Despite all this, the Salvadoran democratic system has continued to suffer from institutional weakness and undemocratic behaviors from the majority of it’s politicians, still, it has been possible to hold elections on a regular basis. Since 1992, 13 national elections have been held, six for the president and seven for the National Assembly and municipal councils.

In a democratic society, the holding of fair, free, transparent and competitive elections are essential for the healthy exercise of power, and above all so that the decision of the people, expressed in their vote, is translated into public servants who, for a period of time, must actually be at the service of the population.

Although the 13 elections held have been within the framework of legality, the one held on February 28, 2021 had certain peculiarities; such as a very expensive electoral campaign, ran by Nuevas Ideas (President Bukele’s party), which concentrated more than 70% of it’s party’s budget on advertising.

Another unfortunate issue was exacerbated electoral violence; which a few before the elections, led to a group of FMLN party supporters being shot at after participating in a party rally in San Salvador. Two activists died in that attack and and three others were injured. The attack was condemned by numerous diplomatic representatives, including Brendan O’Brien, the charge d’affaires of the United States embassy in El Salvador. It was not however, not condemned by the President himself, who instead placed the blame on the FMLN party for carrying out a self attack.

Additionally, there was the constant violation of electoral laws, especially by officials from the highest level of the government and the President of the Republic himself, as well as the abundant use of state resources for electoral purposes.

These factors represented antidemocratic advantages for Nuevas Ideas; who unsurprisingly won the election across the board, not just because they ran a well-strategized campaign that wasn’t afraid to break rules, but also because of an accumulation of discredited institucions, broken promises, leadership deficiency and the overall corruption of the traditional political parties.

If the preliminary results are confirmed, “the president’s party” would secure 56 out of 84 parliamentarians and 145 out of the 262 mayorships and municipal councils. These are historical numbers for El Salvador, before this, the highest figure achieved was by a single party was the ARENA party in 1994, who secured 39 parliamentarians.

With these numbers in his favor, President Bukele will not need any other party to make decisions such as the election of the Attorney General; Human Rights Ombudsman, Supreme Court Magistrates; Magistrates of the Court of Accounts of the Republic; approval of new loans, granting state concessions to the private sector, among other laws. With this level of influence, he would have almost absolute political power.

Another concern has to do with constitutional reform, which is already under way, and the question of whether or not President Bukele will seek to amend the constitution to allow himself to be elected for another term, considering that the current Presidential term is for 5 years, with no oppurtunity for re-election.

However, the concentration of political power in the figure of the president, including the possibility of his re-election, does not seem to be a matter of great importance for the majority of the population. In 2018, a Latinobarometer survey revealed that El Salvador was the country in America that gave the least importance to democracy, only 28% considered it important, while 54% reported that living in a democratic state was the same as living in a dictatorship.

Fortunately, democracy is not reduced to the exercise of institutionalized power, democracy is also found in the organization and participation of mobilized marginalized societies, who all work tirelessly to demand respect for the human rights of thier communities.

Ultimately, nothing would do more harm to El Salvador’s precarious democracy than a passive civil society. Today more than ever, academics, the independent press, the progressive church and the social movement in general must assume a counterweight role against the governmental power structures, that act against the tangible needs of the people, and hold them accountable, regardless of party lines.

TWITTERSTORM! El Salvador 2021 Elections

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The Swearing In of El Salvador’s New President

Version en Español

On June 1, Nayib Bukele was sworn in as the new President of El Salvador. Bukele dabbled in political life in 2012, under the banner of the FMLN party when he won the mayorship of Nuevo Cuscatlán and three years later, in 2015, when he became governor of San Salvador, the capital. His differences with the left-wing party caused his expulsion from it on October 10, 2017. He won the presidency under the Great Alliance for National Unity (GANA), a right-wing party founded by former members of ARENA.

His first speech as president lasted 24 minutes in which he spoke in generalities, without referring to his outlook for the country, or to what his priorities will be. Generally, in their inaugural address, elected presidents reflect on their vision of the country they receive, and what their strategies will be during the five years of their administration.

For his part, Nayib Bukele called for national unity and asked Salvadorans to work hard to move the country forward; but most of his speech was dedicated to exalt his followers, who were present in Plaza Barrios. He also reminisced about his father in an extensive anecdote; thanked his wife; criticized previous governments for unfulfilled promises and reiterated that he will do what he promised in his campaign… making difficult decisions.

As expected, the FMLN harshly criticized the content of his speech, calling it “superficial” through a statement via their official Twitter account. The party argued that the speech did not express commitments or proposals to the important problems facing the Salvadoran people, such as the privatization of water, pension reform and citizen security.

ARENA issued a press release in which it “extends its hand to President Bukele so that he can make a correct government in accordance with the law and institutions; and strive to meet the urgent needs of the people who demand more opportunities that improve their quality of life.”

Both parties agree that the new government faces a country with complex problems. A recent article by the news agency BBC Mundo states that Nayib faces five major challenges as the President of the most violent and poorest country in Latin America.

The main one is the violence. Bukele will face a complex and entrenched issue that is considered a real national security problem, and which has translated into the omnipresence of gangs in the lives of Salvadorans; gangs that sometimes control entire lives. Homicides, extortions, drug trafficking and human trafficking are common crimes associated with gangs.

Poverty is another of the chronic problems. According to the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC), El Salvador was ranked the third poorest country in Latin American between 2015 and 2017. However, 37.8 % Salvadorans still live in poverty.

Corruption, scarce investment to generate sustainable sources of employment and an opposing Legislative Assembly are other obstacles that the new government will face. How will they do? This is still a question that remains unanswered.

The most structured response the incoming government has put forth is their campaign platform, called Plan Cuscatlán, however, it is unknown if this will be adopted as a government plan or if it will undergo substantial modifications. Plan Cuscatlán is an extensive document consisting of 1,075 pages, which identifies parts of the economic model to be implemented, for example, a commitment to mega infrastructure projects such as an airport in the eastern part of the country and train service along the Salvadoran coast.

According to the economist Julia Evelyn Martínez, there are enough signs to conclude that the new government will adopt a neoliberal economic model strongly committed to the interests of the United States. “I have analyzed Plan Cuscatlán and as a result of that analysis I have concluded that what it offers for the next five years is more neoliberalism than there has been in the last 30 years,” Martinez stated during a television interview.

In fact, a few hours after Bukele’s inauguration, President Donald Trump said: “The United States is ready to work with Nayib Bukele to promote prosperity in El Salvador and the hemisphere. Congratulations President Bukele on your inauguration.” With this type of support it can be intuited that the political and economic influence of the United States in El Salvador will increase over the next five years.

What does constitute a positive signal is that the President’s first executive order was directed to the armed force to “remove the name of Colonel Domingo Monterrosa from the barracks of the Third Infantry Brigade.” This is a controversial order because for the Armed Forces, Monterrosa is to this day considered a hero; however, he has been identified as responsible for the El Mozote massacre, so demystifying his name is good for the country’s wellbeing.

Despite both positive and negative signals, it is important to wish the new President all the best, especially since June 1st he became the captain of the ship in which all Salvadorans travel, although it is worrisome when the captain doesn’t point clearly where the ship is heading.

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NUEVO PRESIDENTE EN EL SALVADOR

El pasado uno de junio Nayib Bukele fue juramentado como el nuevo Presidente de El Salvador. Bukele incursionó en la vida política en el 2012, bajo la bandera del FMLN cuando ganó la alcaldía de Nuevo Cuscatlán y tres años más tarde, en el 2015, se convirtió en el alcalde de la capital, San Salvador, pero sus diferencias con el partido de izquierda lo llevaron a su expulsión el 10 de octubre de 2017. La presidencia la ganó con el partido Gran Alianza por la Unidad Nacional, GANA. Un instituto de derecha fundado por exmiembros de ARENA.

Su primer discurso como Presidente tuvo una duración de 24 minutos en los cuales habló generalidades, sin referirse a la visión que tiene del país, ni cuales serán sus prioridades. Generalmente en su discurso inagural los presidentes electos suelen reflejar su visión del país que reciben, y cuáles serán sus estrategias durante los cinco años que durará su gestión.

Por su parte Nayib Bukele hizo un llamado a la unidad nacional y pidió a los salvadoreños trabajar fuerte para sacar adelante al país; pero la mayor parte de su intervención la dedicó a exaltar a sus seguidores, presentes en la plaza pública donde se celebraba el evento; recordó a su padre en una extensa anécdota; agradeció a su esposa; criticó a los gobiernos anteriores por las promesas incumplidas y reiteró que hará las obras que prometió en su campaña, lo cual implicará tomar decisiones difíciles.

Como era de esperar, El FMLN criticó duramente el contenido de su discurso, a través de un comunicado en su cuenta de Twitter, calificándolo como “superficial”. El partido de izquierda sostuvo que en el discurso no expresó compromisos, ni propuestas ante los grandes problemas que enfrenta el pueblo salvadoreño, tales como la privatización del agua, la reforma de pensiones y la seguridad ciudadana.

De igual manera, el partido ARENA emitió un comunicado de prensa en el que “le extiende la mano al Presidente Bukele para que pueda hacer un gobierno correcto apegado a nuestras leyes e institucionalidad; y se empeñe en atender las necesidades apremiantes de nuestro pueblo que clama más oportunidades para mejorar su calidad de vida”, expresa el texto.

Ambos partidos coinciden en que al nuevo gobierno le tocará hacer frente a un país con problemas complejos. Un artículo reciente de la agencia BBC Mundo expone que al nuevo Presidente le tocará enfrentar 5 desafios en el país más violento y pobre de América Latina

El principal es la violencia, Bukele se enfrentará a una compleja y enquistada cuestión, considerada un auténtico problema de seguridad nacional, que se traduce en la omnipresencia en la vida de los salvadoreños de las pandillas, quienes en ocasiones controlan barrios y colonias casi en exclusividad. Los homicidios, extorciones, el narcotráfico y la trata de personas son delitos comunes asociados al accionar de las pandillas.

La pobreza es otro de los problemas crónicos, el referido artículo señala que según la Comisión Económica para América Latina, CEPAL El Salvador se destacó como el tercer país de América Latina que más redujo porcentualmente su pobreza entre 2015 y 2017. Sin embargo, el 37.8% de salvadoreños y salvadoreñas sigue viviendo en la pobreza.

La corrupción, la escasa inversión para generar fuentes de empleo sostenibles y una Asamblea Legislativa contraria a sus intereses son otros de los obstáculos que deberá enfrentar el nuevo gobierno. ¿Cómo lo hará? Aún es una pregunta sin respuesta.

Al respecto la referencia más estructurada que se tiene es su plataforma de campaña, denominada Plan Cuscatlán. Se desconoce si este será adoptado como Plan de Gobierno o si sufrirá modificiaciones sustanciales, el Plan Cuscatlán consiste en un extenso documento de 1,075 páginas, en el que se identifican pistas del modelo económico a implementar, por ejemplo hay una apuesta a la implementación de mega proyectos de infraestructura; un aeropuerto en el oriente del país y un tren que va a recorer la costa salvadoreña, son de los proyectos más emblemáticos.

Según la economista Julia Evelyn Martínez hay señales suficientes para entender que el nuevo gobierno adoptará un modelo económico de corte neoliberal y que estará fuertemente comprometido con los intereses de Los Estados Unidos. “He analizado el Plan Cuscatlán y como resultado de ese análisis he concluido que lo que ofrece para los próximos cinco años es más neoliberalismo del que ha habido en los últimos 30 años”, manifestó Martínez en una entrevista de televisión.

De hecho, unas horas despues de su juramentación el Presidente Donal Trump expresó: “Estados Unidos está listo para trabajar con Nayib Bukele para promover la prosperidad en El Salvador y el hemisferio. Felicidades Presidente Bukele en su toma de posesión”. Con este tipo de respaldo puede intuirse que la influencia política y económica de los Estados Unidos en El Salvador se incrementará en el próximo quinquenio.

Lo que si constituye una señal positiva del nuevo Presidente es que su primer orden ejecutiva fue dirigida a la fuerza armada: Quitar el nombre del coronel Domingo Monterrosa del cuartel de la Tercera Brigada de Infantería. Esta es una orden polémica porque para la Fuerza Armada Monterrosa es considerado un héroe; sin embargo, ha sido señalado como el responsable de la masacre El Mozote, por lo que desmitificar su nombre es bueno para el país.

No obstante las señales positivas y negativas, es importante desearle lo mejor al nuevo Presidente, sobre todo porque a partir del uno de junio se convierte en el capitán del barco en el que viajan todos los salvadoreños y salvadoreñas, aunque preocupa que el capitán no diga con claridad hacia donde se dirige la nave.

Crime Continues to Rise in El Salvador

Yesterday, Salvador Sanchez Cerén took office as the new president of El Salvador, becoming the first former FMLN militant from El Salvador’s Civil War to ascend to the presidency.

President Sanchez Cerén’s political victory has not been the glorious triumph many wanted for the former guerrilla leader. The runoff election against the ARENA’s Norman Quijano was surprisingly close, as Sanchez Cerén squeaked out a victory with only 50.2% of the vote. Quijano’s late surge seemed to stem from Salvadorans’ discontent with the lack of security and the failing truce between the country’s two rival gangs, Mara Salvatrucha and Barrio 18.

The FMLN and the country’s mood have only soured since the election. In May, the police reported 396 homicides, 170 more than the same month last year, and fingers are being pointing in all directions. Now former President Mauricio Funes recently said recently that political interests “want to give the impression that there is a failed state incapable of facing crime,” meaning that foes of the FMLN want to make the leftist government seem unable to address crime.

Indeed, the State appears helpless in stopping the violence. The gangs have taken steps over the past few years by signing a truce but the government was unable or unwilling to support their efforts. And past administrations and political leaders continually fail to address economic and social equalities, or provide youth with good alternatives. Until they do so, gangs will continue to fill in the gaps left by the stagnant economy and broken families.

President Sanchez Cerén said yesterday during his first speech as President that he would lead a System of Citizen Security. He also said, “improving the security of citizens will require that we work together against organized crime, traffickers, extortion, and all expressions of violence. We will fight delinquency in all its forms, with all legal instruments and tools of the State.”

President’s and politicians have made so many speeches over the years but taken little action. If President Sanchez Cerén is going to promote security and end the country’s violence he will have be willing to take bold and creative measures that set aside politics. Language like fighting delinquency in all its forms and using all legal instruments seems to indicate more of the same Mano-Duro or heavy hand kind of law enforcement, which has never been successful.

Unfortunately, President Sanchez Cerén also seems to be embracing the same neoliberal economic policies that the U.S. government has been promoting since the end of the civil war – creating an export economy and attracting foreign investment. These policies have failed to address the social and economic inequalities that have allowed the gangs to flourish, and in fact made divisions even wider.

Most Salvadorans seem to have pretty low expectations for their new President and his administration, and he has given them little reason to have hope for something new. Salvadoran communities and Diaspora seem willing to support the new administration, but President Sanchez Cerén and his team will have to show a level of creativity and boldness that we haven’t seen yet.

Election Results and Highlights 2012

Last Sunday, Salvadorans went to the polls to elect mayors and legislative representatives – the first elections since March 2009 when Mauricio Funes became the first opposition candidate to win the country’s Presidency. It was the conservative ARENA party’s turn to celebrate yesterday, winning back control over the Legislative Assembly and a large number of important municipal seats.

According to the Supreme Election Tribunal website, the party totals for the Legislative Assembly are:

• ARENA: 33 seats
• FMLN: 31 seats
• GANA: 11 seats
• CN: 6
• PES/CN: 1
• CD: 1
• PES: 1
• Independent Candidates: 0

Despite the clear victory for ARENA, no single party has a simple majority of 43 seats and ARENA will have to depend on GANA or other minority parties to take action. As Tim’s Blog pointed out, it’s always possible that the FMLN, GANA, and CN could form a voting bloc and control the Legislative Assembly. While GANA is a conservative party, there may be political advantage in siding with the FMLN on occasion just to keep ARENA in check.

Sunday night, ARENA officials didn’t seem too worried about uniting with GANA. In 2009 when the FMLN won the Presidency and retained control over the Legislative Assembly, ARENA seemed to have hit rock bottom. In October of that year, however, they expelled ex-President Tony Saca from the party accusing him of rigging the selection process that named Rodrigo Avila as their presidential candidate; as well as conspiring to divide the party through the creation of the well-financed GANA party.  Before the elections, ex-President Saca called on the GANA and ARENA parties to unite for the 2014 elections to ensure victory over the FMLN.

But after making such an incredible comeback on Sunday, ARENA leaders again called Tony Saca and the Areneros who left to form GANA traitors and said they do not need to unite to defeat the FMLN in 2014. And ARENA leaders are already eyeing the 2014 elections. On Monday night, Norman Quijano, who won his second term as the mayor of San Salvador by handily defeating FMLN candidate Jorge Shafik Handal, said on Channel 33 that he is definitely considering running for president. Tony Saca has also indicated that he is interested in running for another term as President. Ana Vilma de Escobar, who was Tony Saca’s Vice President, has also made it clear that she is interested in running for President again – she had aspired to be the 2009 candidate before Avila was anointed. Vilma de Escobar did well on Sunday collecting more votes in San Salvador than any of the other legislative candidates on the ballot.

In addition to losing seats in the Legislative Assembly, the FMLN took a big hit in greater metropolitan are of San Salvador, which is comprised of 14 distinct municipalities. In addition to Mayor Quijano holding on to his office in San Salvador, ARENA candidates won in Mejicanos, Soyapango, Ilopango, Apopa, San Martín, Tonacatepeque y Ayutuxtepeque, as well as Santo Tomas just south of the city. As La Prensa Grafica pointed out yesterday, the population of these former FMLN strong holds is over 984,000. Though the margins of the ARENA victories were tight, they were victories none-the-less.

In Soyapong, the FLMN incumbent Don Carlos “Diablo” Ruíz” lost by a mere 309 votes.  Many have made the joke that ARENA had to perform an exorcism in Soyapongo to get out “El Diablo”.  Others are wondering what will become of the ALBA contracts, whose operations hinge on their partnerships with FMLN municipalities.  The Mayors of Apopa and Soyapongo hold the vice president and secretary positions, respectively.

FMLN spokesperson, Roberto Lorenzana, summarized his party’s losses yesterday during a press conference, saying that ARENA won 2.9% more votes, and took some of their symbolic strongholds – Soyapango, Apopa, and Mejicanos – four legislative seats, and more than 150,000 votes that they got in 2009. He said the party is accepting the results with maturity and responsibility, and will be looking at what lessons they need to take away from the losses.

Maria “Chichilco” Ofelia Navarrete, the former FMLN guerilla featured in the 1990 documentary “Maria’s Story” and current Vice-Minister of Government, said this week that Sunday’s results were a sign that El Salvador’s voters are maturing. She points to several politicians from the FMLN and ARENA who lost offices they’ve held for many years because voters wanted change instead of voting for the same parties and the same people. She sites examples from her home region in Chalatenango. In Pontonico, the FMLN mayor who has held his seat for many years lost by 10 votes to the ARENA challenger. Similarly, in San José Cansaque the ARENA mayor who had been in office for many years lost his seat to the FMLN challenger. She says:

“This means that every day the people are maturing in their democratic development… at times the people get fed up with the same government. The leadership from all parties has to reflect, first on the direction of their internal democracy – this is an urgent call.”

Sunday’s voting was not without complaints. On Sunday, officials closed the polls in two municipalities – San Lorenzo, Ahuachapán and San Miguel Tepezontes, La Paz. In San Lorenzo, the Municipal Electoral Board stopped voting to “protect people’s votes.” One report says that election officials closed the polls because FMLN supporters from other places were trying to vote in San Lorenzo. In San Miguel Tepezontes, opposition parties accused the ARENA incumbent mayor of bringing in voters from other municipalities to vote for him, which is of course of a violation of the election code. Because voting in these communities was stopped, the TSE announced that they will try again this Sunday, March 18^th.  Eugenio Chicas, the president of the TSE said that those found responsible for closing the polls could receive up to 10 years of jail time.

In other communities, political parties have not accepted the results of Sunday’s election, claiming fraud. In the municipality of La Libertad, La Libertad, activists from the GANA, ARENA, and PNL parties protested the victory of FMLN-PES incumbent, claiming that he also brought in outsiders to throw the elections in his favor. The margin of victory is almost 700 votes, which would not be an insignificant amount of people to cast fraudulent votes. The ARENA party is also questioning Sunday’s results in other municipalities where they lost seats that they once held. In Nuevo Cuscatlán, La Libertad, ARENA leaders claim that the FMLN challenger won by bringing in outsiders to vote for him, and that they bought off members of the local voting board.

Perhaps the most extreme act on Sunday occurred in San Francisco Menendez, Ahuachapan where vandals broke into the voting center as officials were counting votes and burned the ballot boxes, destroying over 90% of the ballots. The article reporting the incident says that the police and attorney general’s office are investigating and have leads. Others in the community have accused the PDC Mayor Narciso Ramirez of election fraud, saying that he bused in outsiders to vote for him.  Mayor Ramirez has made national news a couple times over the past couple of years. Last October he made news during Tropical Storm 12-E because he was out assisting with the rescue efforts during the extreme flooding when his truck got swept away by the flooding Paz River. The Comandos de Salvamento pulled him and others from the vehicle and got them to safety. In April 2010, the Mayor made national news when he was caught in a shootout over a “business deal” gone bad. Mayor Ramirez was shot three times and three others were killed.

In Pasaquina, La Union, the attorney general has charged three people with electoral fraud. Police caught the men transporting flyers that threatened people going to vote. In Ozatlán, Usulután, officials have charged a man with voting twice.

The municipality of San Fernando, Morazán is going to have to have a run-off. Candidates for the ARENA and GANA parties each received 259 votes, meaning that there is no clear winner. The FMLN and CD parties were not far behind with 236 and 238 votes respectively. The TSE announced that they would hold a runoff after the Semana Santa vacations in April.

Continue to monitor final numbers at the TSE website, or check out the Faro’s all-inclusive time-line for the elections.

Some Support (or at least acceptance) for the Supreme Court Ruling on Independent Candidates

Two weeks ago, the Salvadoran Supreme Court handed down a decision that strengthens the right of citizens to directly vote for candidates instead of political parties. Their decision makes it possible for independent candidates to appear on the ballets during legislative elections.  The ruling was initially met with harsh resistance from the Legislative Assembly (see previous blog post), including threats to remove the Chief Justice and a last-minute draft of a constitutional amendment to prohibit independent candidatures.  In the past week, however, respect, if not support, has grown for the Court’s decision as several political leaders have stepped up to acknowledge that the decision must be recognized even if they do not agree with it.

On Monday, leaders from the GANA party said they would not support further action by the legislature to remove Justices from office or reassign them.  Without their votes, other opposition parties in the Legislative Assembly lack the simple majority required to pass a law. “We are not interested in removing or dismissing any government employees,” said party leader Nelson Guardado.  At the same time, Guardado affirmed that the party still sought to amend the Constitution to prevent independent candidatures (elfaro.net).  The change in position shows that while the party still disagrees with the Supreme Court’s ruling and hopes to reverse it, they are seeking less confrontational means to do so.

Eugenio Chicas, president of the country’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), later issued a call for all concerned parties to respect the Court’s decision even if they disagreed with it.  “The resolution might seem controversial, but it was handed down by the Court and, as such, it is not up for discussion, because it is an [established] sentence and one has to respect the Court’s decisions,” said Chicas in an interview with La prensa gráfica.

On Tuesday Salvadoran President Mauricio Funes, stated that he remains opposed to the Court’s decision.  Funes argued that independent candidatures could give organized crime an increasingly powerful role in elections.  “Criminal organizations would be perfectly able to sponsor a candidate and support him all the way to the Legislative Assembly, and that person, once in the Legislative Assembly, would not represent the people who voted for him, but instead the criminal organization that financed his campaign,” said the President.  Funes did not take a stand one way or the other on whether the Legislative Assembly should take action against the justices of the Supreme Court as a retaliation move, or the proposed amendments to the Constitution.  He also acknowledged the need for greater accountability within parties and asserted his support for legislation that would make party fundraising more transparent as a “control mechanism” (elsalvador.com).

Independent candidatures are already allowed in several Latin American countries, including Mexico, Chile, Venezuela, and Peru.  They are often seen as a fresh alternative when entrenched political parties fail to respond to voters’ needs.  Often, however, they face more obstacles than leading party candidates in order to reach the same levels of success, including the signatures needed to appear on the ballot and the funds required to run a successful campaign.  Because of these obstacles, the strength and influence of independent candidates varies widely from country to country.  Despite electoral success or lack thereof, independent candidates can often increase transparency and accountability in the democratic election process.

Without the necessary votes in the Legislative Assembly to remove justices, the opposition is running out of options to reverse the decision.  What initially seemed like a strong front against the Court’s ruling has lost substantial energy and officials and politicians take increasingly conciliatory positions rather than seeking a fight.  This means that the decision will most likely stand, at least for the 2012 municipal and legislative elections.  Although the Legislative Assembly is still trying to pass a constitutional amendment overturning the Court’s decision, any such proposal would not take effect until it received two-thirds approval from the 2012-2015 Assembly.  That Legislative Assembly, however, could potentially have new members elected as independent candidates in 2012, making passage of the amendment increasingly difficult.

Salvadoran Legislative Assembly and Supreme Court debate the Election Laws

On July 29, the Legislative Assembly and the Constitutional Branch of the Supreme Court began openly debating election reforms.  The Supreme Court issued a ruling that struck down clauses of the Election Code that required candidates to be members of a political party in order to run for office in the Legislative Assembly.  In the same ruling, the Court also said that the closed lists that political parties currently use on election ballots are unconstitutional.  Instead, the Court said, voters must be able to vote for individual candidates from each party.

The Court stated that sections of the Electoral Code were unconstitutional because they diminish voter autonomy and effectively eliminate direct elections, which is a right protected by Article 78 of the Salvadoran Constitution. Warned in advance of the Court’s impending decision, the Legislative Assembly passed several constitutional reforms, one of which completely banned independent candidates from participating in municipal and Legislative. The last minute reforms, some of which were passed at 1 am the night before the Court published its decision, were clearly intended to create conflict with the Supreme Court.

The Court found that the current system of electing Legislative Assembly representatives (diputados) unconstitutional because citizens vote for a party and not individual candidates. Following an election, the leaders of the party that received the most votes chooses the representatives. The judges argue that because citizens can only vote for a party and not a candidate (the ballot actually has the logos for each of the parties and not the names of a candidate), the system violates their right to direct elections. The decision will take affect immediately, long before the 2012 legislative elections, during which citizens will vote for specific candidates and not political parties  for the first time. The names of presidential candidates and municipal officials already appear on ballets, so the decision will not affect those elections. The Judges said that they hope their ruling will bring candidates closer and more accountable to voters by decreasing the influence of the political parties. They also requested that the Legislative Assembly rewrite sections of the Electoral Code dealing with independent candidates to save El Salvador from a legal vacuum on the issue.

Immediately after the decision was announced, leaders from the FMLN and ARENA parties met with Judges to persuade them not to sign the decision. According to elfaro.net, the Judges refused and the party leaders threatened to remove the Chief Justice from Court – one of the strongest powers the Constitution grants the Legislative Assembly. Other politicians, including President Mauricio Funes, brushed off the threat as unlikely.

Since the ruling was handed down it has received criticism from across the political spectrum.  The Legislative Assembly has taken action to prevent it from ever taking effect and threatened to take even stronger measures, including removing multiple Justices from the bench.  On August 1, the FMLN party (which currently holds the presidency) questioned the decision, particularly as it relates to the integrity of political parties in elections, and worried that the Court overstepped its bounds in issuing such a ruling.  Officials from other parties have not taken a clear position but seem tentatively critical of the ruling. Instead they are waiting for the Court to sign the decision and officially send it to the Legislative Assembly before staking out their positions. President Funes has asked for prudence and sensitivity as the Judicial and Legislative branches face off. He has also acknowledged that the laws governing elections are in need of improvement and clarification.  He stated, “I am not going to judge whether the decision of the Supreme Court is advisable or not, but it is a ruling that has to be observed by the Legislature or [the Assembly] would be in contempt of court.” (La prensa gráfica).

One concern over the Court’s ruling is that making legislative elections more direct could allow for greater influence and control by organized crime and drug traffickers. Norman Quijano, the mayor of San Salvador, expressed his doubts that individual candidates can be truly independent.  He fears that if diputados are if not chosen by party leaders, they are likely to be influenced by a variety of interests (La prensa gráfica).

The Catholic Church, however, was quick to defend the Court’s action. Last week, Monsignor José Escobar Alas, Archbishop of San Salvador, expressed his support for the Court’s ruling, saying that it supported democracy in the country.  In a public statement, he asked the Legislative Assembly to respect the ruling. He stated, “In the democratic process, it’s completely valid to have independent candidatures, as in many Latin American and European countries, it’s a step forward for democracy, because the more participation there is, the better. The people are the true winners” (Diario CoLatino).

Despite the heated rhetoric, the Legislative Assembly will have a difficult time getting around the Court’s decision. Amending the Constitution is not easy. Once the Legislative Assembly passes amendments, the next Legislative Assembly must ratify them by a two-thirds vote. According to Rómulo Rivas from the Independent Pro-Electoral Reform Movement (MIRE), the Congress is unable to do anything.  “If they try to pass a Constitutional reform, it would be very difficult, because the following legislature would have representatives elected under the new system, which would make it difficult to get the 56 votes necessary for a Constitutional reform” (Diario CoLatino).

No matter the outcome, the next few weeks are shaping up for a show down as the Legislative Assembly and the Supreme Court face off.  So far, both sides have proved themselves unwilling to compromise on the issue, but more than willing to take action to defend their position.  Because the next national election is not until 2012, and the Constitutional reforms require approval during the next session of the Legislative Assembly, there is still much time for the debate to develop as each side refines its position.

Ciudad Segundo Montes election coverage

Check out Voices on the Border volunteer, Julie Hutton, and her election coverage from sunday here!

Polls are Closed!

Observers throughout the country are reporting massive participation in the elections. By 4pm, with an hour until the polls close, a source in Soyapango stated that they had observed a participation of 60%.

Early exit polling has shown Funes up by a significant margin. However, these results are preliminary, and carry a large margin of error. A representative of FESPAD stated that by their estimates the winning candidate needs a margin of victory of at least 90,000 votes to be confident that the outcome was not influenced by fraud.

Irregularities

In addition to the power outage in Apopa for most of the day, electricity went out at 3 voting centers in Soyapango at 4pm. Because the results must be transmitted digitally, these outages have worrisome implications for the processing and announcement of the final results. Any delays to the announcement of victory will likely heighten tensions.

FESPAD (the Foundation for the Application of Law) stated that they are receiving a fewer total number of complaints of logistical problems with the electoral process than in January. However, a representative from FESPAD said that the complaints they are receiving are more serious than in January.

The majority of irregularities reported to FESPAD fall into three categories:

1) Influencing voters with t-shirts, inappropriate campaigning, food, or money

2) Obstruction of voting; for example, a business reportedly did not let its workers vote

3) Large concentrations of people (suspicious), ARENA is claiming that they are people working in ‘logistica’

Thankfully, there are very few reports of violence, and only 3-4 cases of people attempting vote twice.

Now that the polls are closed, all attention turns to counting the votes and reporting them to the TSE center.  Voices staff will be at the TSE center for the rest of the evening, monitoring the process. We will continue to monitor the power outages and report any results as they come in.