Two New Polls Released

CS- Sondea released a poll this morning that FMLN candidate Mauricio Funes at 55.7% and ARENA candidate Rodrigo Avila at 43.4%, a 12.3 point difference. 19% of respondents said that they were still undecided. The margin of error for the study is 2.5%.

La Prensa Grafica published a poll yesterday that found Funes ahead by 2.9 points, just above the 2.2 point margin of error. Funes won the support of 30.9% of respondents and Avila won 28%. The article noted that the gap between the candidates has narrowed significantly; the same study conducted one month ago showed a 6 point difference between the candidates.

The Effect of the Economy on the Elections

Although it’s unclear whether Rodrigo Avila (ARENA) or Mauricio Funes (FMLN) will win the March 15 presidential elections, it is widely held that this year represents the best chance so far of an FMLN candidate winning greater support than an ARENA candidate. Analysts attribute this shift towards Funes largely to the poor state of the economy in El Salvador.

In an interview with Voices, Professor Lilian Vega, economist at the Central-American University, asserted that the effects of the ARENA’s neoliberal economic policies have created stagnant or precarious economic circumstances for the majority of Salvadorans, and many are beginning to question the status quo.

Professor Vega also pointed out that while some segments of the economy have indeed benefited from the ARENA’s policies, several major sectorsthat have traditionally supported the political right, such as industry and construction, have suffered under the neoliberal agenda. This, according to Vega, has lead many from these sectors, who would never identify with a revolutionary leftist agenda, to move away from ARENA’s Rodrigo Avila and to support Mauricio Funes, a moderate leftist.

In a separate interview, Dagoberto Gutierrez, political analyst at the Lutheran University, pointed out that some voters may react to the uncertain economy by voting for ARENA, a known party, rather than voting for the FMLN which is untested as a ruling party.

We’ll find out how the economy will affect voters in two weeks.

Impacts of the Global Economic Crisis in El Salvador

Since 1992, the political right has aligned itself with the US and pushed a neo-liberal agenda in El Salvador. This has resulted in free trade agreements, the deregulations of markets, and the privatization of banking, telecommunications, and other important sectors. While Salvadorans with the capital to take advantage of these neoliberal policies have benefited significantly, many have not. Economic stagnation, inequality, and a lack of gainful employment continue to characterize El Salvador’s economy.

Now, in addition to these chronic problems, El Salvador faces the effects of the global financial crisis, which are only just beginning to become apparent.  It’s estimated the 10-12 thousand jobs have been lost in the last 4 months. The predictions for growth in GDP range from the government’s optimistic 3% to JP Morgan’s prediction that GDP will actually fall by 0.5% (See article in El Faro for more info in Spanish)

Economic analysts predict that the worst impacts will be felt in 4 main areas: 1) decline in the value of the dollar, 2) contraction in the credit market, 3) a decline in the demand for Salvadoran exports resulting in unemployment, and 4) a decline in remittances from Salvadorans abroad. Click here for further discussion of these in the full article.

New Polls Tell Different Stories

Seven polls regarding the presidential elections were released in the past 8 days, and their findings differ widely. They range from a 3 point lead for Rodrigo Avila (ARENA) to a 20 point lead for Mauricio Funes. One thing is clear is that the race has gotten tighter. See the table below for a summary of the results.

Three polls were released today, Feb 26: one from Universidad Centroamericana’s University Institute on Public Opinion (IUDOP), one by CID – Gallup, and one by Mendoza y Asociados. All showed Funes with a lead, though the size varied. IUDOP showed Funes with a 18-point lead over Avila, winning 49% of respondents. CID-Gallup found Funes with a 6-point lead, and the survey by Mendoza y Asociados gave him a 3-point lead. (Escobar, Ivan and Beatriz Castillo. “Funes aventaja a Ávila en intención de voto: IUDOP” Diario Co Latino. 26 Feb 2009.)

The Salvadoran Opinion Research Center (CIOPS) at the University of Technology of El Salvador (UTEC) released a poll Feb 25. It found that 50.5% of respondents said they would vote for Funes, and 48.9% said they would vote for Avila. However, they warned that Funes lead was within the margin of error, and therefore the results were inconclusive. (Escobar, Iván. “‘Margen de error no permite asegurar ventaja’: dice Zárate” Diario Co Latino. 25 Feb 2009.)

On Feb 24, the research firm Borges y Asociados published a poll in the conservative newspaper Diario de Hoy that gave Avila a 0.9% lead over Funes, with Avila winning the support of 40.9% of respondents, and Funes winning 40.0%. Nearly a fifth remained undecided. There was no mention of the margin of error.

The survey also asked respondents a number of questions regarding their age, sex, level of education, and level of monthly income. Avila faired better than Funes in the groups of voters who are over 50 years old, who have primary education, and who earn less than $200 per month. Funes gained a majority of voters who are between 18-29 years old, are university graduates, and make more than $400/month. (Miranda, Enrique. “Ávila supera a Funes” Diario de Hoy. 24 Feb 2009)

An FMLN-sponsored poll conducted by Vox Latino, an independent Guatemalan organization, gave Funes a 20.1 point lead, only slightly higher than the 19.5% of respondents that said that they could change their mind before the election. (Andrade, Teresa. “Una encuesta interna FMLN les favorece ampliamente.” El Mundo. 24 Feb 2009.)

On Feb 18 Jabes Market Research firm published a poll in which respondents were given a ballot to mark their presidential preferences if the election were today. The study found that 41% of participants chose Avila (ARENA), 38% chose (FMLN), a three point lead for Avila. It is worth noting that 20% of the ballots were left blank; indicating either they were not planning to vote, or were still undecided.

Jabes Market Research also conducted verbal survey which yielded much different results, putting Funes 6 points ahead. Forty-four percent of respondents said they would vote for Funes, 38% said they supported Avila, and 12% (“ARENA adelante en intención de voto” Diario el Mundo. 18 Feb 2009.

Note: Bold outline indicates a clear lead, while dotted indicates a lead that falls within the assumed margin of error.

The Second March for Life / La Segunda Caminata por La Vida

Below is the press release for the 2nd March for Life (Feb23-27), organized by the National Movement of Communities Affected by Flooding.

A todos los hermanos y hermanas solidarios/as a los organismos nacionales e internacionales por medio de la presente les comunicamos lo siguiente:

Las 250 comunidades habitadas por 12,000 familias y más de 65,000 personas que vivimos en las zonas bajas de los ríos Lempa, Paz, Jiboa y Grande de San Miguel, este lunes 23 de febrero iniciamos La Segunda Caminata por La Vida, desde el Puente de oro a la altura de San Marcos Lempa con destino a San Salvador para dar a conocer lo siguiente:

1 Que fenómenos como el Huracán Mitch, la tormenta Stan y otros, han provocado serios impactos económicos, medio ambientales y sociales de los cuales aún no terminamos de reponernos.

2. Que nuestras parcelas, viviendas, escuelas, pozos o fuentes de agua, calles y otra infraestructura existente es el único patrimonio que tenemos.

3. Que las amenazas de inundaciones siguen vigentes durante la época de lluvia, ya que las “obras de protección” realizadas son insuficientes, defectuosas e inconclusas y sin ningún mantenimiento, y esto hace a nuestras comunidades altamente vulnerables.

4. Que cuando las inundaciones se presentan soportamos la pérdida de nuestros cultivos agrícolas, animales domésticos, enseres del hogar y herramientas de producción, lo que incrementa la crisis económica y el hambre de nuestras familias, estancando nuestro proceso de un verdadero desarrollo, además de tener serios impactos en la salud, principalmente de niños, niñas y personas de la tercera edad.

Y ante esta realidad, respetuosamente demandamos al gobierno:

a) Que la Comisión de Economía y Agricultura supervise el trabajo de construcción y mantenimiento que se ejecuta con el préstamo 1102-OCE-ES, por un monto de 8 millones de dólares, con el acompañamiento de una comisión del Movimiento Nacional de las Comunidades Rurales Afectadas por las Inundaciones.

b) Que los resultados de la ejecución de las obras sean dados a conocer en un informe a las comunidades en forma directa y a través de los medios de comunicación.

c) Que en el presupuesto de la Nación se establezca una partida especial para que el Ministerio de Agricultura y Ganadería cuente con recursos para finalizar las bordas, sistemas de drenaje y caminos internos de las cuencas bajas de los ríos: Lempa, Paz, Jiboa y Grande de San Miguel.

d) Que se asegure el mantenimiento permanente de las obras reparadas o construidas.

e) Que se haga un manejo responsable de las presas hidroeléctricas ubicadas sobre el río Lempa, priorizando la protección de las personas y comunidades ubicadas en las riberas de dichos ríos.

f) Que se evite la construcción de nuevas represas, así como la implementación de proyectos mineros

Movimiento de Comunidades Afectadas por Inundaciones

24 de febrero de 2009

Study Shows Disparity in Campaign Ad Spending Between Parties

A total of $15.8 million was spent on campaign advertising in the run up to the municipal and legislative elections in January, according to study by Salvadoran NGO, National Foundation for Development (FUNDE) in partnership with Transparency International.

The ARENA party advertising alone accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total amount spent, paying $10.3 million for advertising. The FMLN spent significantly less, just over $3 million or 19% of the total.

Fuerza Solidaria, a right-wing Venezuelan organization, was the next largest spender, paying out $1.1 million for pro-ARENA ads. This is roughly the same amount spent by all other political parties. Amigos de Funes, an organization supporting Mauricio Funes as a candidate, spent $67,899 or 0.4% of the total.

This level of spending is much higher than during past election campaigns. Parties and other organizations spent $7.8 million prior to the presidential elections in 2004, and only $4.2 million for the municipal and legislative elections in 2006. The amount of spending is expected to go up before the presidential elections in March.

Political analysts have expressed concern over the high level of campaign spending in a country without campaign finance regulations or laws guaranteeing access to information, a situation that could give large contributors -individuals or interest groups- inappropriate influence over politicians.

For articles in Spanish, see “Partidos sobrepasan $15 millones en propaganda electoral, dice FUNDE” from Diario Co Latino and/or “Partidos gastaron $15 mlls en un año de proselitismo” from La Prensa Grafica.

A Flurry of Endorsements

This past week, the political endorsements for the only two remaining presidential candidates have been coming fast and furious.

The National Republican Alliance (ARENA) has succeeded in consolidating support for its ticket from El Salvador’s right-wing political parties. The top leaders of the National Conciliation Party (PCN) had already pledged their support to ARENA’s Rodrigo Avila, and as expected the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) endorsed ARENA as well. The FMLN’s Funes received the official nod from the center-left Party of Democratic Change (CD).

The FMLN and ARENA are also receiving endorsement from former political parties.

This week Funes accepted the endorsement from the Social Democratic Party (PSD), a former party that had split off the FMLN, now turned movement. The secretary general of the leftist Revolutionary Democratic Front (FDR), which must dissolve because it failed to win enough votes in the January elections, has surprisingly endorsed ARENA’s vice-presidential candidate Arturo Zablah. The same is true of the former leaders of the dissolved National Action Party (PAN), composed mostly of ex-members of military patrols. They promised 60,000 votes to ARENA.

Dissension among the ranks

Officials from each party have defied the endorsements made by their party’s leadership to make their own endorsements.

For example, two PDC mayors had already announced their endorsement of Funes before the party announced its endorsement of Avila. More interesting still, there is apparently a faction within the PDC calling themselves Christian Democrats for Change. They have taken out a radio ad featuring a sound bite from Jose Napoleon Duarte –one of the party’s historical icons– which calls the ARENA the party of violence. It should be noted that, Rodolfo Parker, secretary general of the PDC accuses the FMLN of being behind the ad.

There is also a divergence between leadership and the representatives of the FDR. Even though the party’s secretary has endorsed ARENA’s vice-presidential candidate Zablah, three of the party’s leaders and 90% of its base support Funes.

The PCN, also experiencing some dissension, has threatened to sanction members who publicly endorse Funes.

Some officials who’ve been unable to decide between candidates have declared that they will leave their voters free to decide.

And what about those voters?

Along with their pledge of support, party leaders pledge to give the candidates the votes that their party received in the elections on January 18. The vote totals for each party are shown below.

Party:  # of Votes  (% of Votes)

ARENA: 854,166 (38.56%)

FMLN: 943,936 (42.60%)

PCN: 194,751 (08.79%)

PDC: 153,654 (06.94%)

CD: 46,971 (02.12%)

FDR: 22,111 (01.00%)

In his article titled “Nada nuevo (Nothing new)” political analyst Joaquin Samayoa asserts that, as reflected by the fissures within the party hierarchies, the bases will split too. It is likely that the majority of the PCN base will vote for ARENA. However, some angry supporters of Chevez -the PCN’s former presidential candidate who was pushed out by party leadership- may stay away from the polls. The PDC base will also probably mostly vote for Avila, but a significant minority is expected to vote for Funes. Samayoa points out that many CD supporters came to the party because they were unsatisfied with ARENA, but rejected the FMLN’s ideology. He cautions that with the CD’s endorsement of Funes, these members may leave the CD for good.

Samayos  goes on to say “The discussion about offering support from the institution to one of the contending parties or to leave their militants free is idle talk. The Constitution is what grants us voters freedom, not the leaders of a party…The vote is free and secret. That is how we understand it, and that is how we, as citizens, will exercise it.”

US requests that FMLN not use Obama’s image

Yesterday, the Charge d’ Affairs for the United States Embassy, Robert Blau, requested that the FMLN stop the use of President Barack Obama’s image in their campaign advertisements.

The television ad in question features several images of President Obama, and focuses on drawing comparisons between Obama and the FMLN presidential candidate, Mauricio Funes. The advertisement asserts that both Obama and Funes have been falsely accused of connection to terrorism and extremist governments. It goes on to say that both offer a message of hope and change in a time of crisis.

This ad is seen as a part of a strategy by the FMLN to respond to suggestions by the ARENA party that a Funes presidency would endanger El Salvador’s relationship with the United States.

Blau stated that the use of Obama’s image in campaign ads may give the wrong impression that the US endorses a particular candidate. He reaffirmed the pledge of former Ambassador to El Salvador Charles Glazer that the US would not get involved in the nation’s elections, and will respect Salvadorans’ ability to elect their own leader.

Earlier in the campaign season, ARENA also ran a television advertisement congratulating Obama on his victory and displaying an image of Obama and ARENA’s party logos and flag.

Many leftists agree that the Obama has the right to request that his image not be used in the Salvadoran campaign. However, they also point out that Obama’s image was used in a tone of respect and admiration, unlike the use of images of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Bolivian President Evo Morales in attack ads run by ARENA linking Funes with the South American leaders.

The FMLN has announced that it will re-examine the use of Obama’s image.

Pre-Election Advocacy in the Lower Lempa

Yesterday the Diario Co-Latino highlighted the United Communities’ initiative to organize the communities affected by flooding and advocate for government action.  The president of United Communities, José Santos Guevara is quoted denouncing the governminent’s claims that they have completed the levees along the Lempa River. The levees  remain incomplete and the corresponding entities have yet to begin repairs of areas damaged by last October’s flooding.  (See post from October 2008)

The article comes on the heels of a 5-day march to San Salvador organized by the communities of El Salvador’s four river basins – all of whom are affected by flooding year after year .  Community representatives will present their demands at the Presidential Palace on Friday February 27th.

To see the article in Spanish click here.

Pacific Rim Freezes Activities; New Archbishop Opposes Mining

The El Dorado gold mine project proposed by the Pacific Rim has been at the center of the debate regarding natural resource extraction in El Salvador.

According to Pacific Rim, a Canadian company, the mine project has widespread local support because of the employment it would provide, and poses no threat to the environment. The project would use the newest and best techniques, and include a water treatment plant.  The practices would be so safe in fact that, according to CEO Tom Shrake, the tailings pond could eventually be used as a reservoir. (See article on Mineweb.)

However, local anti-mining activists, Oxfam America, and the Roman Catholic bishops tell a different story. They say the mine would contaminate drinking water with cyanide, irreparably damage the environment, and produce little economic benefit for local communities. (See article on Upside Down World.)

Because of the politically delicate nature of the issue, the Saca administration –going against its neo-liberal reputation– has refused to grant Pacific Rim the permits necessary to move ahead with the project. In July of last year, Pacific Rim announced a slow down, and that it was laying-off 42 of their 267 employees based in El Salvador until the government granted them the permits. After little response from the government, in December 2008 Pacific Rim filed a notice of intent to seek arbitration under CAFTA regulations for $77 million in indirect appropriation, giving the government until March 9 2009 to respond.

Yesterday (February 16 2009) at the regional forum on metals mining, the new Archbishop of San Salvador, Monseñor José Luis Escobar, declared his opposition to mining because of the danger it poses to the environment and human health. He urged the nation to wait to extract the minerals until the industry develops better technologies and techniques that will not pose these threats.  The archbishop went on to say that he is also concerned with the degree of power that the government grants transnational corporations.

These comments came only 4 days after Pacific Rim announced that it will freeze its feasibility study, citing the current volatility in the costs of inputs such as steel and fuel. They stated that activity will be halted until the market stabilizes, however it is unclear when that will be.